Harley-Davidson: What Happened

It could be the title of Harley-Davidson CEO, Matt Levatich’s memoir on his failed 2017 year while in charge of the Motor Company.

I happen to be riding with the HOG Lewis and Clark Expedition last week when Harley-Davidson announced their disappointing Q2’17 financial results and late to weigh in:

* Harley-Davidson net income dropped 7.7%. Sales in the U.S. were down 9.3% and 6.7% worldwide.

* Harley-Davidson now expects to ship 241,000 to 246,000 motorcycles to dealers worldwide in 2017, which is down approximately 6% to 8% from 2016.

* Harley-Davidson expects to ship 39,000 to 44,000 motorcycles in Q3’17, which is down approximately 10% to 20% from 2016.

* Approx 180 U.S. based manufacturing jobs will be cut in Menomonee Falls and Kansas City.  This in addition to the 118 workers who were axed back in April this year at the York plant as some positions were being shifted to Kansas City.

For those keeping track, this is a continuation of a three-year slide by the motor company.  However, during the call Mr. Levatich described what can only be called an “alternative reality” in hopes (I assume?) to reassure the financial markets and stated “we are going to build bikers first, add 2 million new Harley-Davidson riders and launch 100 brand new models during the next 10 years while growing the international business by 50%.”

Huh?

I’m being a bit snarky here, but his statement appears either woefully naïve to the point of negligence or a continuance of marketing spin.  Proclaiming an unprecedented future result of this magnitude smells like stunningly wishful thinking at best or at worst plain lying.  For reasons I can’t explain, why would Mr. Levatich climb up on a high-wire without a net given such an overly-optimistic prediction?  Even with nearly 8-million Americans that are “sleeping license holders,” — those who have motorcycle riding credentials, but don’t own a bike — it doesn’t pencil and seems unobtainable.

I don’t know if the boardroom folks in Milwaukee read the NW Harley Blog on a regular basis and/or  hang on its every word.  But, we know the motor company has been continuously producing motorcycles for more than a century,  yet seemingly everyone on the internet with a keyboard thinks they can do it better.

And it’s a well-established fact that internet bloggers and commenters are geniuses. They definitely know how to run a business better than a company that has been constantly producing motorcycles through two world wars, the Great Depression, and roughly 20 U.S. recessions.

Sure the motor company needs our help and I’ve got some feedback and plenty of comments.  But, until the motor company calls me asking for it, I’ll look for Mr. Levatich’s memoir, which will certainly be “a deeply intimate account and a cautionary tale on the world’s most iconic motorcycle brand.

Slightly modified book cover courtesy of Simon & Schuster.

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The Lewis And Clark Trail – TBT

Expedition Supply Kit

It’s throwback Thursday…

And nearly twelve years ago motorcyclists retraced the Lewis and Clark trail.

It was the summer of 2002 and in August about 500 Harley-Davidson riders completed a 2-week journey from St. Charles, Missouri to Seaside, OR while re-tracing the path of the historic Lewis and Clark Expedition.

The ride was hosted by HOG and on this trip it included events dealing with Lewis and Clark history as well as they handed out medallions along the way, echoing the gesture of the “peace medals” distributed by Lewis and Clark and their Corps of Discovery on the original expedition.

Travelogue Notepad

HOG provided riders an “Expedition Supply Kit,” a package of “swag” which included a canteen, a leather wallet and a travelogue notepad.  Riders visited sites in Kansas City, MO; Sioux City, Iowa; Pierre, SD; Bismarck, ND; Billings, MT and Lewiston, Idaho.

At the time, the Associated Press interviewed riders and reported, “…on a motorcycle you don’t just see it, you smell and feel it.”

I couldn’t agree more.  There is no substitute for seeing the countryside on a motorcycle.

Anyone out there participate on this ride?

Photo courtesy of H-D and HOG.

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Spy Photo Of A Mid-Year 2014 Road Glide?

A Mid-Year 2014 Road Glide?

The Harley-Davidson Road Glide is different.  

Different design, different ride and the motorcycle has incredibly loyal customers.

Customers who appreciate the wind control and handling that comes with a frame mounted fairing are not typically going to switch to another model.  However, the Road Glide does take people off competitive brands and without it in the H-D line up dealers are missing an opportunity or worse, will see erosion of market segment share.

Sales numbers do talk and during the last earnings call, CFO John Olin stated that the Road Glide represented approximately 9% sales volume and would be back from its temporary hiatus.

And now in the buzzfeed there is more speculation about what the 2015 Road Glide fairing may look like.  Thanks to Worth Harley-Davidson, the Kansas City, MO., dealer posted photo’s on a Facebook page.  

Why wait for the 2015.  This nice custom fairing could hold all your aftermarket Project RUSHMORE electronic purchases?!

UPDATE:  July 8, 2014 – “Official” spy photos of the 2015 Road Glide are HERE.

UPDATED: August 1, 2014 – Harley-Davidson officially reveals the 2015 Road Glide.

Photo courtesy of Worth H-D.

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Harley-Davidson Creates Rumble With Kansas City Layoff Notice

From 2012 Annual Report — “For employees at the Kansas City, Mo., plant, building bikes is more than just a job.”

Falling sales and rising profits.

It’s a contradiction that many companies experience and one that Wall Street is impressed with if the HOG stock price is any indicator.  It closed at a 52-week high ($59.48) today.

Despite the surging profit in Q1, WDAF-TV in Kansas City is reporting today that H-D plans to lay off between 130 and 140 employees effective June 30th.  Seventy-five of the workers are “casual-employees” or seasonal workers who typically help during a surge in production.  The remaining employees that will be let go are full-time.  The Kansas City plant produces the Sportster, Dyna and VRSC models.

Harley management has consistently stated a restructure goal to have a more flexible work force and to permanently be in a position to generate strong profits on a lower revenue base.  You might recall the restructure move is all part of a new labor agreement signed in February 2011 that went into effect in August 2012.  The agreement included reducing the overall full-time employment at the plant to about 540.  Harley-Davidson management advised Kansas City workers that if they didn’t agree to the concessions, the plants work would be moved to York, PA.

It now seems that H-D is conserving cash and keeping a close eye on production.  It might be because there continues to be uncertainty about the stability of the recovery or it’s as simple as they’ve reached the end of their 2013 production run.

In the TV video the interviewed employee, Benjamin Stark stated that workers were walking around like zombies.  Not good.

American businesses have gotten used to being much leaner and the joblessness shows only a few signs of easing.  There is nothing I can say that will help ease the effects of being laid off, but I sincerely hope everyone affected rebounds quickly.

Photo courtesy of H-D.

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Harley’s Humpty Dumpty Prevention Program

Humpty Dumpty Prevention Program

Most chief executives are entering 2011 with big decisions to make—especially how to revive sales.

But, some have deeper problems to address.  Facing down “significant cost, efficiency and production flexibility gaps” as well as fierce competition for some, such as Harley-Davidson who last November told Kansas City union officials that it might move operations to Harley’s Springettsbury Township plant if a contract wasn’t ratified by early March.

Well it’s March and their “no blink” management style resulted in the members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 176 and United Steelworkers Local 760 not letting “Humpty Dumpty” fall.  They ratified a contract by a vote of 467 to 185 and the new labor agreement takes effect in August.

The “fall prevention program” has been implemented and proven to be an effective tool in the loss of all jobs in Kansas City.  Congrats to Local 176 and Local 760.  The new contract is a 7-year deal that, when implemented, will result in the Kansas City plant having about 540 full-time, hourly unionized employees compared with about 685 today.  Yes, it’s a loss, but it does keep many high-paying manufacturing jobs in Kansas City and brings all H-D plants under one umbrella for production flexibility.  The company stated that the new contract, which will be implemented in phases, will result in about $15M in annual savings starting in 2013.

To all the folks who railed on my public union previous blog post, you see private unions have to adjust to economic conditions.  Unlike the Wisconsin public union members who have protested for days because they have been ask to pare back their benefits, Harley-Davidson has budgetary constraints that can’t be fixed by raising taxes. If we used the public union mentality I suspect they would ask Harley-Davidson to respond by raising prices and demand that motorcycle enthusiasts just pay more for a scooter instead of buying something else?

And if all that wasn’t enough… this item falls into the “what were they were thinking” category… I read that in Minnesota a local pipefitters union has purchased the Hillcrest Golf Club in St. Paul, paying $4.3M – yes, you read that correct at $4.3M – for the private club and vowing to keep it private for at least two years.  That does a lot for the unions  being frugal perception…

Photo courtesy of NYTimes.

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Is Harley-Davidson Punking Us?

York, PA Harley-Davidson Plant

Harley announced back in May a major restructuring of its operations in York, Pennsylvania and the possible move to another U.S. location.

The two plants in York employ more than 2600 employees.  I previously posted a bit of a tongue-n-cheek letter that was picked up in the local York, PA., press which recommended H-D to consider coming to Oregon, but I never heard back from the company…

At any rate, the reasons cited (my interpretation of reports) for a potential H-D move from York were:

1. Inefficiencies – it takes too many employees too long to manufacture a motorcycle
2. Salaries – cost structure is too high, meaning lower wages are needed to reduce the overall cost structure
3. Economy – declining sales mean further job cuts required as production/output needs to align with sales
4. IAMAW – in 2007 the York plant went on strike and negotiated a 12% wage increase over 3 years.  H-D received few concessions and lost 16 production days which disrupted other assembly lines. At a time when they need to reduce the cost structure by $100M one of the largest cost contributors (wages) is set to steadily rise.

Arial of Springettsbury Township H-D Plant

For those of you unfamiliar, the plant in York opened in 1973, however, some of the buildings date back to World War II.   It is the largest H-D manufacturing facility and the Softail factory recently received a $145M upgrade investment. The plants cover 230 acres and have over 1.5 million square feet under roof where the workers assemble the Touring and Softail models as well as “SE” limited production factory-custom motorcycles.  This plant also has the dubious honor of being the most visited by a sitting U.S. President  (Bush and Clinton) who’s administration’s leveraged the plant for free-trade discussions.

It’s been reported that after a week of H-D executives visiting various locations the short list was announced as four possible sites. Drum roll please…… they are:

1. Shelbyville, Kentucky, located between Louisville and Lexington;
2. Murfreesboro, Tennessee, located just southeast of Nashville;
3. Shelbyville, Indiana, located southeast of Indianapolis;
4. Kansas City, Missouri where Harley already has a major facility

It’s no accident that two of the four states (Tennessee and Indiana) vying for the new factory are right-to-work states and will have offered H-D numerous incentives to relocate.  I would imagine items like Investment Advantages which allows for the waiver on income/excise/sales taxes etc.; Enterprise Zones which provide property tax incentives or abatement; Vocational Rehab Services for employees who need relocation training etc., and the concession list surely goes on.  And at the same time officials in PA., are working feverishly to convince H-D to stay although they don’t have a blank sheet of paper to work from and it may limit what they can offer up.  In 2008, Harley employees paid over $2M in local taxes and should the plant relocate it would be a major budget hit to the municipalities.  The H-D “spin machine” continues to state that staying in Pennsylvania is the preferred option, yet in the same breath they also cite inefficiencies and cost structure issues with the York facility.

You know the mood these days isn’t just about banks or exec bonuses being Public Enemy No. 1.  I think what disturbs Americans of all ideological persuasions is the fear that almost everything, not just government, is fixed or manipulated by some powerful hidden hand, from commercial transactions as trivial as the sales of a Seahawk football ticket to cultural forces in the news media.  What this recession has crystallized for many of us is the sinking sensation that the American game is rigged — that the system is in hock to “the interests of powerful lobbyists or the “wealthiest few” who have run the “system” too long.

It’s hard to avoid the sense that H-D is wasting time trying to appease people who can’t be appeased.  Is H-D really committed to moving the York plant or is this about the art of a negotiation… where they preview and think about taking every new concession.  Isn’t it really just an indicator that any state can be punked?

York Plant photo courtesy of H-D.

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