Superspreader Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally

UPDATE September 10, 2020:
Scrutiny, then disagreement of methodology and then harsh criticism of the academic modelers from San Diego State University’s Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies arrived quickly after they published their findings in a 63-page report. The researchers sought to quantify the Sturgis Rally COVID-19 impact in South Dakota and nationwide by analyzing the (anonymous) cell-phone data of attendees.

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said the study was “fiction,” and criticized journalists who reported on it.  “Under the guise of academic research, this report is nothing short of an attack on those who exercised their personal freedom to attend Sturgis,” Noem said in the statement. “Predictably, some in the media breathlessly report on this non-peer reviewed model, built on incredibly faulty assumptions that do not reflect the actual facts and data here in South Dakota.”

Media References:
USA Today
WSJ (paywall)

The Associated Press as of last week identified 290 cases from 12 states tied to the rally. Instead of looking at contact tracing and trying to identify specific people who had the disease and passed it onto others, the San Diego researchers looked at the areas that sent the most people to the rally and how case trends changed after the event.

*****

A scientific “Discussion Paper” (dp13670) was recently released referencing preliminary work, which documents the spread of COVID-19 due to a mass gathering conducted during a pandemic against the guidance of the CDC.

The document explicitly refers to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and how a single superspreading event can be leveraged to impose restrictions on future mass gatherings.

Discussion Paper Highlights:

• The per 1,000 case rate increased by 10.7 percent after 24 days following the onset of Sturgis Pre-Rally Events.
• A total of 263,708 additional cases due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally.
  These cases represent a cost of over $12.2 billion, based on the statistical cost of a COVID-19 case of $46,000 estimated by Kniesner and Sullivan (2020).
• The cost is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend.

The document concludes that the spread of the virus due to the Sturgis Rally was large. The authors provide descriptive evidence and suggest stricter mitigation policies to limit exposure due to the behavior of non-compliant events and those who travel to them.

Photo courtesy of IZA Institute of Labor Economics Document.

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The 80th Sturgis Rally Is On With Major Adjustments

Sturgis City Council Release

The Sturgis City Council voted 8-1 last night to host the rally and announced today that the 80th Annual City of Sturgis Motorcycle Rally will move forward.

However, there will be significant changes designed to reduce the large crowd gatherings in the downtown core with the intent to “safeguard the community and residents.”

That there is a true definition of dichotomy.

The City Council decision, given most all other large outdoor events and indoor concerts around the U.S. have been canceled or rescheduled, is an interesting one. The annual rally will generate millions in revenues for the host city, but no mention of that trivia in the press release.

Buffalo Chip Email Blast

According to Sturgis Rally stats, in 2019 there were 490,000 rally visitors — at least 70 times the estimated 2019 population of Sturgis (6,500), according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  In other words, the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally attendees in 2019 were the equivalent to half of the state of South Dakota’s estimated 2019 population of 884,659.

Read the full City Council release HERE.

A few items known as of today that will be implemented at the event:

• Attendees will be asked to practice social distancing and follow CDC guidelines.
• Enhanced safety/sanitization protocols will be carried out in the downtown area.
• City sponsored events including opening ceremonies, parades, B1 Flyover, and live music at Harley-Davidson Rally Point are cancelled.
• Photo towers will NOT be installed.
• Temporary vendors will be required to abide by state and federal protocols and guidelines related to COVID-19.

I’m not trying to “COVID Shame” anyone thinking about or planning to attend the motorcycle rally.  But, remember a long, long time ago when the freedom of riding across the U.S. and attending a rally didn’t bring this type of risk?

Images courtesy of City Council and Buffalo Chip.

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Covid-19 Bites Harley-Davidson

Q1’20 Harley-Davidson Retail Motorcycle Sales + Motorcycles and Related Products Segment Results

Let’s jump right to that impressive Q1’20 financial result:

• Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) posted earnings of $69.7 million compared with $127.9 million in the same period a year ago.
• The dividend was slashed to 2 cents a share from 38 cents.
• The motor company is in talks with major U.S. banks to secure $1.3 billion in liquidity.
• Harley’s U.S. retail sales were down 15.5% compared with the same period a year ago.
• International retail sales were down 20.7% compared with 2019.
• Harley’s U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market segment share was down 2.2 percentage points, to 48.9%.

Another quarter, another poor performance from Harley-Davidson, though the market seemed to buy into the promise that this time it will be able to turn things around.

Déjà vu…

Management promising to fix things again by “crafting strategy accelerants” to deliver improved sales and better returns.  However, it admitted that its efforts thus far haven’t worked and also said it was “refining” the plans it had already devised, but it wouldn’t reveal how it was going to achieve them until this summer. Granted the financial problems Harley-Davidson encountered this quarter aren’t necessarily all of its own making, though it hasn’t helped itself along the way.

It’s important to note that the Harley-Davidson trends in the U.S. have been weak for years despite the economy being strong for so long. That is a major problem and the acting Harley-Davidson CEO, Jochen Zeitz, remains vague on what the motorcycle company is going to do to change that dynamic.

The “ReWire” Board

The fact that management chose the term “ReWire”, emphasizing the electric future to describe their refining plans reads like a satirical article in The Onion.  It’s as if CEO, Jochen Zeitz said, “I’ve heard some concerns going around, and I want to impress upon each and every one of you that I’m taking every possible step to ensure that we tap into a market that has traditionally been neglected by motorcycle manufacturers, Harley-Davidson is announcing a new line of motorcycles designed specifically for men.”

The “ReWire” plan consists of five main points:

• Enhance core strengths and better balance expansion into new spaces.
• Prioritize markets that matter.
• Reset product launches and product line-up for simplicity and maximum impact.
• Build the Parts & Accessories and General Merchandise businesses to their full potential.
• Adjust and align the organisational structure, cost structure and operating model to reduce complexity and drive efficiency, to set Harley-Davidson up for stability and success.

The ReWire playbook abandons some of the previously ratified “More Roads” plan, but there is so much “CEO Speak” — “designed to address top priority opportunities, drive consistent execution and reset the company’s operating model in order to reduce complexity, sharpen focus and increase the speed of decision making.” — in that investor call its difficult to know what exactly remains “committed” to or what will stop.

Little is certain these days, but there’s one sure thing: in a situation where 30+ million people were laid off or furloughed in the past 6-weeks, people are definitely thinking about their wallets.  And living with ever-present, crushing uncertainty and the knowledge that people all around us are dying isn’t the stimulus to rush out and purchase a new motorcycle.

Let us face facts.  It’s going to be a different world for a while. After all, temperature checks, touch-less payments, masks, wipes, take-out and distancing were not part of the Harley experience before the March closures.

If Harley-Davidson is about anything, it’s about bringing people together. Lots of them. And really, really close — with motorcycle rallies, music festivals, HOG events and all the cross country rides.  Looking at you Sturgis!

The whirlwind of 400,000+ motorcycle enthusiasts half-hearted adherence to CDC guidelines, while gathering all week in a number of local bars, and eating VEGAN-burgers could be viewed as a controlled experiment to determine the virus’s true incubation rate.

I have some gray in my hair and beard, something you will see in a majority of Harley enthusiasts.  I find the idea of a Harley specifically aimed at men deeply patronizing.

Photos courtesy of Harley-Davidson.

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The Big Kahuna

Great Northwest Day For A Ride

Like many of you, I was going stir-crazy after being cooped up in the house for the better part of 15 days and started thinking about stacked switchbacks and rolling hills.  I was ready for a break, and decided to unplug and spend some time on the H-D.

I’m not sure what it is, but when I roll down the road with the wind in my face, I’ll get a whiff or a scent of something that reminds me of BBQ turkey legs grilling.  That inevitably leads to thinking about other deep fried delicacies, ice cold refreshments and some live music.

Today’s ride was no different.

With my mind wandering about Crisco, I mentally pivot to that time The Big Kahuna BBQ went to Sturgis.  I remember Jeff Stumpf, a big guy with an enormous grill that sounded like a flame-thrower, and could roast six whole hogs at a time.

Back in 2004, he loaded up his 7,500-pound, cast-iron barbecue pit on wheels and drove to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally dreaming of ‘get-rich’ plans.  He would sell 20,000 BBQ turkey legs and 4,000 ears of corn to the hungry bikers at the rally.

What could go wrong… a lot it seems.  A girl he hired to help was arrested for flashing her wares.  A guy he hired was also arrested and couldn’t bail out. Jeff was short-handed in a big way. His interesting Sturgis story is HERE.

But, I’ve digressed.

I do enjoy walking around in a crowd clutching a prehistoric-sized BBQ turkey leg as much as the next guy, but as a kind of ghostliness settles over the locked-down northwest, a turkey leg will have to wait.

Until then, it’s time to order up a tasty blend of hickory and applewood smoked meat on a stick from Famous Dave’s Bar-B-Que.  Take out only please and then an ice cold beer at home.   Mmm. Mmm.

Photo taken by author

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Brace For Impact As Harley-Davidson Announces Layoff

News about Harley-Davidson during the month of August has been a bit of a wild ride.

There was the consent decree and $15M settlement with the EPA. Then the announcement that Harley expanded the list of bikes on recall that may have been built with defective hydraulic clutch systems.  Then the biggest engine-product launch for the company since 1988, when the Twin Cam made its debut.

And now today, the day before the Milwaukee Rally kicks off, Harley-Davidson announced that approximately 200 employees will face layoffs starting in October as the company adjusts motorcycle production due to slower sales.

According to various news reports including Rick Barrett, of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the union stated many of the layoffs will take place at Harley’s assembly plant in York, Pa., and some will occur at the engine plant in Menomonee Falls, where the company employs approximately 1,000 people, as well as in Tomahawk.

Given that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally attendance was down roughly 40% from a year ago (some of which was expected), suggest that some riders are busy doing other things than throttling down rural America’s roads to a rally which makes the launch of its Milwaukee-Eight engine motorcycles key to amp up any new motorcycle sales.

Photo courtesy of Sturgill Simpson Video.

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Indian Motorcycle Announces 2017 Line-Up

Indian Motorcycles

Could this be a historic mark on Sturgis?

Seventy-five years after Ed Kretz dominated the first motorcycle race on the sands of Daytona Beach, Indian Motorcycle announces the 2017 line-up just days before the start of the 76th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and just hours before Harley-Davidson’s Q2’16 financial results.

Indian states the 2017 lineup includes the recently released Scout Sixty, Indian Springfield and Chief Dark Horse models with new color choices.

A new and the industry’s largest and brightest touch-screen information and entertainment system has a 7-inch display with turn-by-turn navigation, Bluetooth audio and USB flash drive support. The Chieftain bikes come with 100 watts of audio, while the more expensive Indian Roadmaster has 200 watts.  The screen is glove compatible with two-finger touch capabilities, according to the company.

Indian has grown at a brisk pace, introducing nine new models since its relaunch in August 2013.  The motorcycle industry is looking to be flat this year, so Indian and Harley-Davidson are in a share battle.  For the full year, Polaris sees motorcycle sales increasing in the high teens on a percentage basis.

Time will tell if it’s a brand, a dealership or a bike thing as the two companies slog it out in the back half of the year.  On the surface it looks like Indian will once again challenge its main rival.

If you are headed to the 76th annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally,  riders can view the entire new 2017 lineup at the Indian Motorcycle Factory display on Lazelle St. or experience them firsthand with a Factory Demo Ride at 2100 Whitewood Service Road (I-90 at Exit 30) from August 6 – August 12 from 9 a.m. – 5 p.m. daily.

Photo courtesy of Indian Motocycles.

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Sturgis – Spontaneous Versus Calculated

Sturgis Rally 2016 — 76th Year

Life is about choices. What to wear, what to eat, where to ride… And if you pondered each one in advance, trying to get it exactly right, you’d be left far behind and barely make it out of your house.

There’s something unique about touring by motorcycle whether it be spontaneous or calculated.  Some riders want a state-by-state listing of the best motorcycle roads with in-depth descriptions of each highway and ratings for the road’s scenery, surface quality, and a description of the best greasy food stops.  They obtain motorcycle maps, get motorcycle trip tips, reviews, suggestions, and more.  Others are just fine to point the front wheel in a direction with back roads, freeways and cornfields without ever looking at a map.

I’m having some personal restlessness and feeling a bit starved for rides this year. I was aiming for Laughlin, Sharkweek/Sturgis and Reno, but circumstances eliminated the first two.  I don’t need to worry about Reno, yet. Although, when I last looked, I see all the local hotels have already raised their rates for those dates.  Then I remind myself that the best rides I take are never the trips to any of the big rallies anyway.

And speaking of the heightened motorcycle adventure called Sturgis (August 6-13th) — prep is in full swing for the 76th Rally celebration which starts in a couple weeks.

Last year Harley-Davidson announced that the motor company is now the “official motorcycle” of the annual Black Hills Rally in Sturgis, South Dakota (through the year 2090!). And until November 2015, nobody had ever successfully trademarked the name of a city, but Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, Inc. is the official sponsor of the Sturgis Rally and it has trademarked “Sturgis,” “Sturgis Motorcycle Rally,” “Sturgis Rally & Races,” “Take The Ride To Sturgis” and “Sturgis Bike Week.” The corporation has also trademarked the official Sturgis rally logotype or picture mark. The oldest of these trademarks dates to 1997 and the most recent was registered in 2011, just before their suit was filed.  The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, Inc., won that trademark infringement case against Walmart.

But, I’ve moved off topic where every American should try at least once the Legendary Steak Tip Dinner at the Loud American Roadhouse (no colors policy strictly enforced).

Harley-Davidson dropped a press release to outline all their plans at the 76th Sturgis Rally (HERE).  A quick re-cap is:

• The Harley-Davidson Rally Point is a their permanent year-round space in Sturgis that will feature events and live music daily from the stage.
• Kick-off Party for the 76th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, Friday, Aug. 5, at 3 p.m.
• Rides:
  • Mayor’s Ride featuring Grand Marshal Ben Bostrom, Monday, Aug. 8.
  • Harley-Davidson Editor’s Choice Bike Show, Tuesday, Aug. 9- Registration 8 a.m./Awards 4 p.m.
  • First Ever Angel’s Ride, Friday, Aug. 12 – The number of women riders is on the rise.
  • Free Motorcycle Demo Rides on the 2016 line-up.  Staging for demo rides takes place in the parking lot behind the Community Center
• The Project RUSHMORE Experience is a behind-the-scenes and hands-on look at H-D’s latest touring motorcycle technology
• H-D Fit Shop and Genuine Motor Parts & Accessories area is new this year will have a “Quick Install” area for 30-minute or less installations of selected accessories for your motorcycle.
• Better than a selfie stick!  Pro Bike photos taken of you/your bike to post on social media and an option to purchase the photo as a keepsake.
• Hollywood Harley Bikes from the movies Captain America and Avengers will be on display including Steve Rogers and the hero bike from FX’s Sons of Anarchy TV show will be located on a red carpet area

In addition, there are many, many other “not-to-be-missed” activities around town, in the camp grounds and at various music venues.

Whether you are spontaneously twisting throttles to South Dakota or making a road trip that is highly calculated — Enjoy!

@HarleyDavidson social media is providing wall-to-wall coverage at #LiveYourLegend.  The official H-D Sturgis App, is at:  www.h-d.com/sturgis.

Photo courtesy of H-D.

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And The Survey Says: Sturgis Rally Most Popular

The results are in from a survey which the City of Sturgis commissioned during the 2013 rally.

The survey teams circulated at Loud American Inn, Knuckle Saloon and Easy Riders Saloon.  Some of the information is pretty much what you’d expect,  but there were some findings that were not obvious. Here are some of the findings:

• The age breakdown was 40% of rallygoers are between the ages of 54 and 65, and 36% fall into the 41 to 53 age range
• 9% of rally registrants said they were over 66 years old — up from 2 percent in 2004
• 56% of rally attendees are male and 44% female
• 25% have taken some college courses; 19% have an Associates or vocational degree and 18% of those surveyed have a Bachelors degree
• Majority came to the rally on a Harley-Davidson motorcycle
• Have a household income of more than $75,000
• More than 25% planned to stay for eight days or more.  The next highest numbers were four days and seven days.
• More than 20% of respondents came from western states (i.e., states located west of the Mississippi River); about 20% came from east of the Mississippi River. About 6% are not from the U.S.
• Most tend to travel to the rally on a motorcycle, though a significant percentage travel in an automobile or truck. About 50% come to the rally on their motorcycle and about 37% said they travel by car or truck.

The full survey findings can be found HERE.

Photo courtesy of City of Sturgis

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Larry Goes To Sturgis

Only in America

He grew up on HOG farm in Pawnee City, Nebraska and dropped out of college in his junior year after trying his hand at comedy.  It turns out that was a good decision.

I’m talking about Daniel (Dan) Lawrence Whitney (a.k.a. “Larry The Cable Guy”) with his stereotypical redneck appearance and his southern catchphrase, Git-R-Done!

The Lippin Group, an entertainment communications and marketing firm contacted me about a “tune-in-alert” on the History Channel who is airing a biker-themed segment of “Only in America with Larry the Cable Guy” on (Tuesday), April 5th (9/8C).  If you are unfamiliar with the TV series, the comedian explores the country, immersing himself in different lifestyles, jobs and hobbies.  On the April 5 episode Larry visits the famous Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota.

The episode airing tomorrow was shot last year (August 11, 2010) during the 70th Anniversary.  I was fortunate to attend the 70th rally and blogged about the ride out and back HERE, HERE and HERE.  I also provided a follow up post on the rally statistics HERE.

And speaking of South Dakota,  where a lot has been written about native Americans, the Sturgis show airs on the marriage anniversary of Pocahontas, daughter of the chief of the Powhatan Indian confederacy, who marries English tobacco planter John Rolfe in Jamestown, Virginia. The marriage ensured peace between the Jamestown settlers and the Powhatan Indians for several years.

Set your DVR if you can’t watch the episode as it should be interesting.

Photo courtesy of History Channel and Larry The Cable Guy.

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70th Sturgis Rally Travelogue – Part 2

Posse at the 70th Sturgis Rally

STURGIS is STURGIS — Since 1938 the Sturgis Rally has been held every year, with some exceptions during WWII, for example the gasoline rationing in 1942.

And as a result, a lot about Sturgis remains nearly the same year after year after year.  There are the RVs, tents, vendors, concerts, people watching and lots of motorcycles.  And did I already say there is a lot of people?  Every year they try to make it bigger, better and fancier.  In fact, this year the musical lineup included folk icon Dylan to heavy metal pioneer Osbourne along with some Motley Crue and ZZ Top in-between.  Each of the big three camp grounds compete with each other to see who can bring in the more impressive talent.

But there feels like a bit of a metamorphosis at Sturgis.  It’s become noticeably more commercial.  Even the Hells Angels had a booth serving up (for a fee) a Sonny B. book signing along with calendar and t-shirt sales!  The rally has turned a corner toward a concentration of commercialized chrome with a sanitized or reserved atmosphere.  Nothing wrong with that.  It’s just about moneymaking which doesn’t interest a lot of folks.

Our group persevered through the changes in rally persona, and spent a couple days at the “humble rumble” (i.e. Sturgis) – enjoying all that the town and surrounding area had to offer up – I departed with only one t-shirt!  The Sturgis population of 6500 hosts a few hundred thousand biking enthusiasts and along the way the economic engine collects about $987M in state tourism for the little celebration.

Capitalism at its finest!  And if you don’t think there are many people in attendance… consider this: NYC has 26,402 people per square mile; Sturgis during rally week has 160,427 people per square mile!

In my estimation there are 3-types of people who come to the Sturgis rally. The CASUAL OBSERVER – who may ride, but most likely does not and spends most of the day in t-shirt shops buying “proof” they were at the ‘mayhem’ or event.  Next is the RECREATIONAL RIDER – some who rode there, but many likely trailered their $35K CVOs.  This group offers up the largest opportunity for the vendor booths as the biker subculture fantasy doesn’t come cheap.  The last group is the RODE MINE whose leather jackets patina match the sunburned faces.  You don’t get that bright red tan while sitt’n in captain seats in the Ford F-series pickup!

Willie G

There might even be another group, those who don’t own rain gear, sport offensive tat’s and do tune ups along the way.  They have a true pulse of the V-Twin and a real sense of brotherhood.  But I’ve digressed.  For most the celebration will come to an end and will need to shave and shower and squeeze back into the cubicle.  In other words, get back to work as were going to need to pay off the August credit card bill!

From my vantage a few highlights were: the Kid Rock concert at the “Chip” (Dylan was totally lame!); face-to-face with Harley executives (Willie G., Bill and Nancy); Mount Rushmore achieved the highest single day attendance record on August 10th; witnessing the ear blasting B1-B Bomber fly over on main street; “The Wall That Heals” (a ½ scale replica of the Vietnam Veterans Memorial); the AMD World Championship customs; free Macanudo cigars and the Harley-Davidson booth/crew.

AMD World Championship

Speaking of the H-D booth, I want to provide a shout out to the Milwaukee team for a job well done!  In previous years you’d have to commute to Rapid City to see the new model line-up which many riders passed over.  It was extraordinarily convenient to meander up from the Broken Spoke and talk up new features with the well trained H-D personnel who were genuinely interested in chatting it up with riders.

Now for some of the bad news: the 70th Rally saw about double the number of road deaths/crashes vs. previous year averages.  Nine people were killed in the Sturgis area during the rally.  There were no deaths last year.  This number doesn’t account for fatal wrecks in other states involving motorcyclists on their way as was the situation for an Oregon man who crashed on US 12 near Powell, ID HERE.   Granted the higher number of attendees does contribute to potential crashes, but in many instances the accidents seemed due to inattention.  Early stats indicate that fewer people were arrested for drunken driving, but more for drug violation.  Law enforcement responded to 73 injury accidents and 36 non-injury which was similar to previous years.  Total citations for the 2010 rally were down to 1442 vs. 1803 in 2009.

70th Sturgis Rally Travelogue – Part 1 HERE and Part 3 HERE.

Photos taken during the trip.

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