The Harley-Davidson Winter Of Our Discontent

The COVID-19 Motorcycle Back Rider Barrier

Like most of us, I’m thoroughly sick and tired of the pandemic at this point!

The confusing and contradictory advice along with the arbitrary changes with mandates and shutdowns by government “experts” has created a lack of trust.  Are the decisions really based on evidence and rigorous analysis?

In a crisis like the pandemic, predictability and consistency in government policies are not only ideal, they’re a lifeline.

And, just as there was some semblance of normalcy returning in late August/September, after an impromptu ride to Glacier National Park and a few Starbucks coffee runs with the option of actually sitting INSIDE to enjoy a dark-roast brew…the long-predicted fall surge hits.

This time around it felt different.

Some people I know became sick, and as I write this post some are just now recovering from COVID, which is good news and very fortunate.

In the meantime, consideration of your feet is now a key requirement for Harley-Davidson. Especially for who’s in, who’s out, who’s promoted and who’s been hired at the motor company.

I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t see this coming.

Harley-Davidson executives with footwear industry expertise — being the new turnaround vehicle of brand insight into what Harley’s customers truly need — and how to deliver it without previous motorcycle and/or riding experience.

So, what does Clarks, Croc’s and the world’s leading footwear manufacturer, Bata Group, have in common with Harley-Davidson motorcycles?

I’m referring to Serena Di Sarra, who recently joined Harley-Davidson as Director of Marketing, Asia Pacific and Latin America.  It’s likely coincident, surely not cronyism, that Harley-Davidson CEO Jochen Zeitz, who previously ran PUMA, a company that designs and manufactures athletic and casual footwear, awarded an executive marketing position to Di Sarra.

Given the various 2020 “x-Wire” strategic “walk-backs” at Harley-Davidson it leaves the impression that decision making is (has been?) wishy-washy. Similar to some of the arbitrary government pandemic mandates, constant changes to strategic directions at the motor-company could be symptomatic of a flaw in the process. Some of the walk-back examples are almost as pointless as the head-scratching motorcycle back rider “protective shield” — a motorcycle barrier adopted by the Philippine government that was mandated to fight off the spread of the pandemic.  Don’t get any ideas Gov. Kate Brown!

But, I’ve digressed

Once again I’m writing this post from a virtual lockdown situation, missing my family, friends, colleagues, and the events that didn’t or won’t happen this year.

We can all absorb the gut punch of a one-year interruption in our riding passion if it means coming out stronger on the other side — and I believe that will be the case. When riding events and rallies come back, they’ll return with an “unprecedented” sense of what had been lost and a greater appreciation of our riding relationships.

What gets a motorcyclist through a mask-wearing northwest pandemic winter?  Reading technical manuals, making a bucket ride list, repairing, upgrading and waxing your way out of discontent.

Photo courtesy of RAPPLER.com 

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The Cost of Employee Tension At Harley-Davidson

Michelle Kumbier

When handled well, conflict resolution can save a company time and money and help maintain a healthy work environment. Unfortunately, conflict management at Harley-Davidson in the executive staff is imperfect, as they have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars due to workplace disputes.

The latest example is Michelle Kumbier.  

In October 2017, Michelle Kumbier was appointed senior vice president and chief operating officer (COO) of Harley-Davidson Motor Co. with responsibility for overseeing the Milwaukee-based motorcycle manufacturer’s U.S. and international markets in addition to her current responsibilities leading product and operations. Previously, Kumbier served as senior vice president, Motor Company product and operations. In that role, she led a team of more than 4,500 employees worldwide to bring Harley-Davidson motorcycles, parts and accessories and general merchandise to market.

$HOG 10-Q Filing

Obviously she was a failure…  for the new Chief Executive Jochen Zeitz, and wouldn’t be part of getting the company on “a path to winning” —  the ‘scarcity strategy’ called ReWire — so, Kumbier departed Harley-Davidson on April 3, 2020.  In the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Harley-Davidson did not disclose a reason for her departure.

However, earlier his week, Harley-Davidson Inc. paid the former high-profile executive a settlement of $660,000 after she threatened litigation connected to unspecified events related to her departure, the company stated in a regulatory filing.  I’m not a workplace dispute solutionist, but the reason people sue is often not rooted in money as much as the person does not feel they are being treated fairly.

10-Q Filing Section 10.2

Kumbier, who had been a Harley-Davidson employee since 1997, and the company “have disputes over events that allegedly occurred relative to her resignation from the company,” the Milwaukee-based motorcycle manufacturer said in exhibit 10.2 included in its 10-Q quarterly financial report filed Nov. 5 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.  

Harley-Davidson said it “has denied and continues to deny Kumbier’s allegations” and also denies that it has any liability to Kumbier on any of her “disputed claims.”

But, went ahead and paid her $660,000 for the general denial of those allegations.

The company will make a lump-sum payment to Kumbier after she signed the settlement agreement that was dated Aug. 14, 2020. The document also states that Kumbier acknowledged the settlement amount is more than she would otherwise be entitled to under the company’s normal policies and procedures and that Kumbier released the company, its executives and its board “from all claims, charges, demands, and liabilities of any kind.”  Kumbier also signed a noncompete clause that prohibits her from working for or consulting with a large list of Harley competitors or potential competitors.

It might be appropriate that Harley-Davidson devise a “conflict calculator” to augment their environmental profit-and-loss accounting method to put a figure on how much the company spends on conflict resolution and executive termination each year.

Harley-Davidson CEO Jochen Zeitz Background

Photos courtesy of Harley-Davidson, Michelle Kumbier and US SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION — FORM 10-Q (November 5, 2020) Filing

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Harley-Davidson Q3 2020 Financials

Good afternoon.

Election Day is a week away. There’s new evidence of water on the moon. Amy Coney Barrett is a Supreme Court justice, the fire hose of information continues to overwhelm even the most devout COVID-19 science junkies and Harley-Davidson shares soared 27% to $36.82 earlier in the day after reporting third-quarter net income of $120.2 million and post its best Q3 result since 2015.

A striking result after Harley-Davidson put a German environmentalist in charge and recorded a worldwide sales decline of 8%, which is the 15th consecutive quarterly decline.

Wall Street is reviving optimism about Harley’s future at a time when motorcycle sales are in decline. Talk about exaggerating your perspective.

Jochen Zeitz’s (CEO) “ReWire” (yes, a play on the LiveWire electric motorcycle) strategy cut 30% of the models in the lineup, exited 39 markets, eliminated 10% of its workforce including product teams developing new motorcycle models — were executed to manage down motorcycle volume and reduce its global presence due to low sales.  

The actions helped to stop discounting and drive dealership prices higher to MSRP in Q3.  It’s also a tacit acknowledgement that the motor company’s smaller scope and scale is the only way forward after multiple abandoned growth plans and over a decade long quest to appeal and reach new types of riders.

Abandoning affordable, youth-oriented motorcycles is a staggering reversal given Mr. Zeitz’s experience at Puma in connecting with the youth culture and claiming ownership of that generation in Europe. Remember “Puma chic” streetwear fashion?

Harley-Davidson Inc. is back!  Back, to making big, expensive motorcycles for its most devoted customers.

UPDATE: October 27 at 5:13PM Pacific — Full Disclosure: I don’t currently own or have plans to purchase HOG stock.

Photos courtesy of Bloomberg and Harley-Davidson

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Covid-19 Bites Harley-Davidson

Q1’20 Harley-Davidson Retail Motorcycle Sales + Motorcycles and Related Products Segment Results

Let’s jump right to that impressive Q1’20 financial result:

• Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) posted earnings of $69.7 million compared with $127.9 million in the same period a year ago.
• The dividend was slashed to 2 cents a share from 38 cents.
• The motor company is in talks with major U.S. banks to secure $1.3 billion in liquidity.
• Harley’s U.S. retail sales were down 15.5% compared with the same period a year ago.
• International retail sales were down 20.7% compared with 2019.
• Harley’s U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market segment share was down 2.2 percentage points, to 48.9%.

Another quarter, another poor performance from Harley-Davidson, though the market seemed to buy into the promise that this time it will be able to turn things around.

Déjà vu…

Management promising to fix things again by “crafting strategy accelerants” to deliver improved sales and better returns.  However, it admitted that its efforts thus far haven’t worked and also said it was “refining” the plans it had already devised, but it wouldn’t reveal how it was going to achieve them until this summer. Granted the financial problems Harley-Davidson encountered this quarter aren’t necessarily all of its own making, though it hasn’t helped itself along the way.

It’s important to note that the Harley-Davidson trends in the U.S. have been weak for years despite the economy being strong for so long. That is a major problem and the acting Harley-Davidson CEO, Jochen Zeitz, remains vague on what the motorcycle company is going to do to change that dynamic.

The “ReWire” Board

The fact that management chose the term “ReWire”, emphasizing the electric future to describe their refining plans reads like a satirical article in The Onion.  It’s as if CEO, Jochen Zeitz said, “I’ve heard some concerns going around, and I want to impress upon each and every one of you that I’m taking every possible step to ensure that we tap into a market that has traditionally been neglected by motorcycle manufacturers, Harley-Davidson is announcing a new line of motorcycles designed specifically for men.”

The “ReWire” plan consists of five main points:

• Enhance core strengths and better balance expansion into new spaces.
• Prioritize markets that matter.
• Reset product launches and product line-up for simplicity and maximum impact.
• Build the Parts & Accessories and General Merchandise businesses to their full potential.
• Adjust and align the organisational structure, cost structure and operating model to reduce complexity and drive efficiency, to set Harley-Davidson up for stability and success.

The ReWire playbook abandons some of the previously ratified “More Roads” plan, but there is so much “CEO Speak” — “designed to address top priority opportunities, drive consistent execution and reset the company’s operating model in order to reduce complexity, sharpen focus and increase the speed of decision making.” — in that investor call its difficult to know what exactly remains “committed” to or what will stop.

Little is certain these days, but there’s one sure thing: in a situation where 30+ million people were laid off or furloughed in the past 6-weeks, people are definitely thinking about their wallets.  And living with ever-present, crushing uncertainty and the knowledge that people all around us are dying isn’t the stimulus to rush out and purchase a new motorcycle.

Let us face facts.  It’s going to be a different world for a while. After all, temperature checks, touch-less payments, masks, wipes, take-out and distancing were not part of the Harley experience before the March closures.

If Harley-Davidson is about anything, it’s about bringing people together. Lots of them. And really, really close — with motorcycle rallies, music festivals, HOG events and all the cross country rides.  Looking at you Sturgis!

The whirlwind of 400,000+ motorcycle enthusiasts half-hearted adherence to CDC guidelines, while gathering all week in a number of local bars, and eating VEGAN-burgers could be viewed as a controlled experiment to determine the virus’s true incubation rate.

I have some gray in my hair and beard, something you will see in a majority of Harley enthusiasts.  I find the idea of a Harley specifically aimed at men deeply patronizing.

Photos courtesy of Harley-Davidson.

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