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Posts Tagged ‘Cramer’

hog-vs-spxHarley-Davidson is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2009 financial results April 16.

Even if you’ve been leveraging “guru” Cramer (Mad Money) to help make a fortune — who in my view has no more idea of what is going to happen tomorrow than the average chimp. Pessimism runs high especially after the motorcycle manufacture took the unusual action of reporting mid-quarter sales numbers earlier this quarter. With sales down 13 percent worldwide in January and February the chance of a sunny quarter and forecast is unlikely.

Clearly HOG deserves a great deal of skepticism. Over the past year, the stock’s decline of 66% has outpaced the 40% slide endured by the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX). As a stock underperforms you’ll naturally see an uptick in investor pessimism.  There are a number of indicators which suggest traders are looking for a sharp decline out of the stock prior to April expiration.  One of the better article’s deconstructing the HOG situation can be found HERE.

Chart courtesy of Schaeffers

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