Superspreader Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally

UPDATE September 10, 2020:
Scrutiny, then disagreement of methodology and then harsh criticism of the academic modelers from San Diego State University’s Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies arrived quickly after they published their findings in a 63-page report. The researchers sought to quantify the Sturgis Rally COVID-19 impact in South Dakota and nationwide by analyzing the (anonymous) cell-phone data of attendees.

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said the study was “fiction,” and criticized journalists who reported on it.  “Under the guise of academic research, this report is nothing short of an attack on those who exercised their personal freedom to attend Sturgis,” Noem said in the statement. “Predictably, some in the media breathlessly report on this non-peer reviewed model, built on incredibly faulty assumptions that do not reflect the actual facts and data here in South Dakota.”

Media References:
USA Today
WSJ (paywall)

The Associated Press as of last week identified 290 cases from 12 states tied to the rally. Instead of looking at contact tracing and trying to identify specific people who had the disease and passed it onto others, the San Diego researchers looked at the areas that sent the most people to the rally and how case trends changed after the event.

*****

A scientific “Discussion Paper” (dp13670) was recently released referencing preliminary work, which documents the spread of COVID-19 due to a mass gathering conducted during a pandemic against the guidance of the CDC.

The document explicitly refers to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and how a single superspreading event can be leveraged to impose restrictions on future mass gatherings.

Discussion Paper Highlights:

• The per 1,000 case rate increased by 10.7 percent after 24 days following the onset of Sturgis Pre-Rally Events.
• A total of 263,708 additional cases due to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally.
  These cases represent a cost of over $12.2 billion, based on the statistical cost of a COVID-19 case of $46,000 estimated by Kniesner and Sullivan (2020).
• The cost is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend.

The document concludes that the spread of the virus due to the Sturgis Rally was large. The authors provide descriptive evidence and suggest stricter mitigation policies to limit exposure due to the behavior of non-compliant events and those who travel to them.

Photo courtesy of IZA Institute of Labor Economics Document.

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Growing Restless

I grow restless. I must go. I need a road trip. It is not just me.

The nation feels like it is pulling itself apart.

There’s the coronavirus and ongoing spread. Skyrocketing unemployment. Concern for our livelihood.  Will our employer bring us back to work. Then there is the color of justice and the ethnic disparities of the criminal justice system. Not to mention, the behavior of individuals that boil over into violence, looting, and riots.  I’m not trivializing the protests because people who participate in these types of events do so for a real reason.

Individually, each protester has logic, beliefs, and reasoning, but when a crowd becomes angered, tribal mentality often sets in and leads to a criminal mindset. It’s impossible to predict when a group will suddenly turn into a rioting horde. But, can we all agree that “protestors” shouldn’t destroy their communities?

I’ve digressed.

I’m itching to go for a long ride on the Harley. Clearly, these are frustrating times and a road trip is one of the last remaining fragments of the American dream. I cling to it like a splinter from the true cross. We may no longer be able to ride west to a land beyond fences but, for a little while longer at least, we remain mostly a nation without permanent, police roadblocks.  Although, I must admit that during the Laughlin River Run, the motorcycle road blocks set up by the Mojave County Sheriff in-and-out of Oatman really agitate me!

And, yet I still think about riding there. I don’t know why. Probably because I have already gone so many times. I recall the old days at the Flamingo, now the Aquarius, when there were patches everywhere from everywhere. The Hells Angels would put on a nightly show of bagger wheelies and motorcycle tricks for the riffraff. It was the PR classic image of the good ‘ol rowdy boys having fun. Now those good, old days are long gone. Everything changed after a “spontaneous” biker brawl between the Hells Angels and Mongols in 2002.

The old idea of freedom (to come and go as I please) seemed evident not long ago. I have yet to adjust to the many recent improvements in my country. I do not own a motorcycle with an electric plug and an estimated cruising range of 100 miles and doubt I ever will. I own a gasoline burning, American motorcycle that makes noise. As a result, I still think about the solitary desert Muse, two-lane black tops, cornfields and the vast landscape of 14,000 foot peaks.

The road trip has always been so essential and my personal restlessness has been boiling for a couple of months now.

Earlier in the year I was anxious to ride and it was all about calendar planning. I scribbled rallies and ride plans in boxes on a paper calendar. For several days I sat at my computer reviewing maps and motel locations with a calendar in one hand and my checkbook and a calculator in the other. My laptop browser had multiple travel sites open. When I started the planning process, I thought it would be as much fun planning the trip as going. It wasn’t and that was before traveling became a casualty of “The COVID.”

I am starved for rides this year and was aiming for Arizona Bike Week, Laughlin, Devils Highway (HOG), 80th Sturgis and Reno. I guess it is a good thing they cancelled Pendleton Bike Week and Hells Canyon or else I would be trying to fit that in, too.  To date, they’ve all been cancelled.

And it’s looking more like I might not need to be concerned about adding in the cost of the “World Famous Sirloin Tips” and a Budweiser at the Loud American Roadhouse on Main Street. The Sturgis City Council has prepared a set of protocols that will be used when making the decision to hold or cancel the 80th motorcycle rally.  They will assess the COVID situation again on June 15th and determine next steps.  I know that if I did go, I must return from Sturgis with a tee shirt and other crap I don’t need. Once I get there I can’t help myself.

There is freedom on the road. To point my front wheel towards the east, twist the throttle and leave the misleading news with click-bait headlines all behind. This year might be the year that a spontaneous day trip turns into a long distance solo motorcycle tour.

It’s time to see this great country!

Photos taken by author.

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Harley-Davidson MIA With Coronavirus Response Ads

Is Harley-Davidson committed to lending a hand?

It’s not obvious that Harley-Davidson execs realized their normal marketing plans will no longer cut it as COVID-19 overtakes nearly every facet of American life!

I’m not talking about an empty kumbaya ‘Let’s Ride’ sentiment.  Clearly, the typical messaging in the motorcycle marketplace isn’t going to work the same way as prior to the WW coronavirus pandemic.

Stating the obvious, one would think that Harley-Davidson would play into the motor company’s more than 116-year history and remind consumers how the company has responded during world wars and during previous disasters in America.  While buying or servicing your motorcycle may not be top-of-mind at the moment, offering up some type of payment relief program to consumers affected by this disaster would not only provide some peace of mind to customers, it would reaffirm that the motor company is really focusing on the consumer health situation vs. self-serving attention in suspending U.S. production to disinfect manufacturing equipment and pulling financial guidance for wall street.

Digital Advert — ‘Breathe’ by Droga5

The last significant digital advert (‘Breathe‘ — February 10, 2020), by Droga5, was a message of the outdoors and the experience of riding in a world that is humdrum.

In case you missed it, the world is no longer humdrum…  Droga5 should waive client fees for ‘pivoting’ H-D creative and media to be more reflective of the current situation.

Where is Harley-Davidson marketing?  Not only to pivot the current creative, but how about immediately trying to get a little bit of free publicity via “specially curated images” for video conference backdrops. Spitballing here… It’s important to be reassuring right now and not try to say to people ‘Rush into your Harley dealership for a sales event.‘

Where is the Harley-Davidson Foundation, the philanthropic organization of Harley-Davidson Inc.?  Where is Harley-Davidson Credit?  How about offering a program giving new motorcycle buyers very low-to-zero percent financing and the option to delay their first payment for 90 days?  Where is Harley-Davidson Service?  Maybe provide free service or reduced costs for people who only have a motorcycle for transportation?  And lastly, where is the “We’re With You Every Step” inspirational statement from the United Steelworkers and International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers’?

The COVID-19 pandemic is producing economic and social disruptions not seen before, and major industries have already felt the impact. People aren’t buying as much stuff. People are getting laid off. Despite government reassurances, the anxiety of closed businesses and lost employment and wages weigh heavy on people.

But, lets bring it back to the local situation in the northwest.

As of this morning, March 30th, the Coronavirus situation is:
Oregon: 13 deaths, 548 cases — Oregon numbers
Washington: 195 deaths, 4,896 cases — Washington numbers
United States: 2,600 deaths, 143,532 cases — U.S. numbers

While not essential for health, sustenance, shelter, and hygiene—it’s time for Harley-Davidson to step up and find a way to exist, operate, and communicate in ways that offer one of some combination of help, hope, and entertainment.

To Be Fair:  It is important to note that Harley-Davidson, it’s dealership network and the Harley-Davidson Foundation have made significant charitable contributions over the years.  From donating motorcycles to the Haitian Earthquake to funding Red Cross for the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and to natural disasters in the U.S. like hurricane Florence.

Photos courtesy of Harley-Davidson

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‘Coronavirus’

I truly hope you all are healthy while staying safe.

To state the obvious: we are all drowning under a steady drip of negative and sometimes outright terrifying news.

With social media and cable television, we can get this drip, drip, drip of dangerous news 24/7. And given the intense competition between the different “news” sources, it has created an environment of doing whatever it takes to increase clicks and views in support of more ad revenue.  Adding to this are the bad actors out there.  They have goals to take advantage of the current structure of social media to excite, energize or anger audiences making it very difficult to stem the tide of disinformation.  In fact, according to some news reports, Russian trolls are already engaged in disinformation campaigns around COVID-19.

There are three factors that seem to encourage the pessimism spiral. The first is a belief that the events that have occurred are permanent. In other words, if things are bad, things will stay bad. The second is a belief that what has happened will have a pervasive and apocalyptic effect on our lives. And the third is the issue of blame, finding someone, not just someone who is accountable, but someone who can be blamed with all the emotion that goes along with that process.

I want to avoid the temptation to play armchair psychologist, but recognizing that inside voice that is making those negative remarks and arguing against yourself, while putting things in true perspective can help to be more optimistic.

There is relief and why, perhaps now more than ever, motorcycle blogs are essential. I hope you agree.

Blog dispatches from across the country about motorcycle wanderings—this can provide a welcome diversion, a brief reprieve from the current restrictions we’re all living under, and a reminder of the thirst for motorcycle adventures we’ll all need to sate when this pandemic has finally passed.

One day soon, this crazy time of social distancing and sheltering at home will be behind us and we’ll be immersed riding with the sun on our backs and the wind in our face!

Photo taken by author — “The Valley Isle” Sunset, Hawaii (March 2020).

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