F-16A Fighting Falcon, F-15C Eagle, and F-15E Strike Eagle fighter aircraft fly over burning oil field sites in Kuwait during Operation Desert Storm.
It never happened!
In contrast, there are motorcyclists who routinely read this blog that fought in Operation Desert Shield, which became Operation Desert Storm and morphed into a number of other names.
I recall one of the biggest tank battles since World War II, was the Battle of 73 Easting, and broke the back of Saddam Hussein’s armored divisions and sealed Iraq’s defeat. Unfortunately that battle marked not the end of the Gulf War, but the beginning of several “forever-wars” that plague the U.S. to this day.
The scheme of maneuver for Operation Desert Storm
The last time China really attempted to wage a major war was against Vietnam back in February 1979. China was the aggressor, but it’s propaganda machine attached an unconvincing name to the conflict — the “Self-Defensive Counterattack Against Vietnam.” Hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops crossed Vietnam’s northern border and invaded the country, to punish them for invading Kampuchea (today’s Cambodia), to remove the Khmer Rouge.
The Chinese invasion had their asses handed to them! Estimates run as high as 28,000 Chinese dead and 43,000 wounded, while the number of Vietnamese dead were estimated at under 10,000. The Vietnamese were tougher, had battle experience, better equipment, knew how to fight asymmetrical warfare against a larger force, and flat out beat the Chinese. After a month (March 1979), China suddenly declared its “lesson” to Vietnam was finished and began to withdraw completely on March 16, 1979.
Report: The Elements of the China Challenge
40-years later, both governments have seriously committed to suppressing memories of that war. Beijing’s unrelenting efforts to control information means that China claims the war as “a victory,” with all missions completed. That viewpoint is not supported by the evidence or any analysis.
Sound familiar? Do you recall China’s indifference to other nations’ well-being as they unleashed the “born in Wuhan,” COVID-19 global pandemic?
You are likely saying to yourself… “Don’t victimize the bats, Mac!”
But, what about the oppression of ethnic and religious minorities (Uyghurs, Tibetans, Mongolians, Christians); fighting Indian soldiers in Eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC); Chinese fighters/bombers buzzing Taiwan’s territorial airspace; or Hong Kong voters’ voices meaningless with a national security law? How about the forced technology transfers, cyberattacks, and a whole-of-nation approach to economic and industrial espionage. Then there is the intensified internal repression with mass surveillance and control over the country by expanding the systematic use of indoctrination, censorship, disinformation, high-tech surveillance, forced disappearances, “re-education” camps, compulsory labor, forced sterilization, involuntary birth control, and other heinous abuses. And, I haven’t even started on the control over the world’s international supply chains.
They don’t really seem to care unless it relates to control of the population and re-configuration of world affairs through economic power to achieve global preeminence.
Meanwhile, U.S. history reveals that the Operation Desert Storm battle marked not the end of the Gulf War but the beginning of several “forever-wars.” The U.S. established Operation Provide Comfort in April 1991 (renamed Operation Northern Watch in 1997). A no-fly zone was established in 1992 in the south of Iraq, known as Operation Southern Watch. The U.S. invaded Afghanistan in the wake of the September 2001 terrorist attacks. There was the start of Operation Iraqi Freedom in March 2003. There was Operation Neptune Spear to kill “Geronimo.” Then President Barack Obama expanded the battlefield to Syria by 2015.
The fighting we have done in the region, nonstop since the first troops were deployed in Kuwait in August 1990, should now be painfully obvious, the net result of all of the efforts is the same: We — not the ever aggressive economic power hungry CCP — are always fighting wars, which are perpetually costly. Thirty years of unending U.S. war has had profound costs on our country — with questionable strategic benefit.
Low-ball estimates suggest Washington has wasted a staggering $6T (yes, trillion $) on these wars vs. funding badly needed infrastructure at home. More sadly is the military personnel cost of thousands killed, tens of thousands wounded, and hundreds of thousands with post-traumatic stress and traumatic brain injuries.
With any metric you want to apply, these “forever-wars” and nation-building have cost America an astronomical amount.
I understand that the United States must champion the principles of freedom — but the United States Government is accountable to the American people.
After 30-years, we’ve done our part and it is time to acknowledge reality, immediately withdraw troops and end it.
Now we have Oregon Senate Bill 574 which has passed the Joint Committee on Transportation and been sent to the full senate for consideration. The bill would legalize lane sharing under certain conditions. Lane Filtering, Lane Sharing, and Lane Splitting (i.e. “white lining”) all basically refer to a motorcycle rider positioning its way through slow-moving or stationary traffic.
Lane Splitting Example
According to the bill, the type of conditions in Oregon include:
• On highways with a posted speed limit of 50 MPH or higher
• Traffic on the road must be stopped, or moving at less than 10 MPH
The rider:
• May travel no more than 10 miles per hour faster than traffic
• Must not impede the normal and reasonable movement of traffic
• Must safely merge with traffic, if traffic speed exceeds 10 miles per hour
• Must pass traffic traveling in the same direction
Riders cannot lane-share:
• Between a traffic lane and the curb and bicycle lane (on either side)
• Between a traffic lane and a row of parked vehicles (on either side)
• On the right side of the rightmost lane of traffic, or the left side of the leftmost lane of traffic
• In a school or construction zone
You likely either love it or hate it, as lane splitting is a controversial subject that doesn’t seem to promote any middle ground. If you have some passion around this topic, now is the time to contact your senator and request their support for S.B. 574.
Visit laneshareoregon.com/#getinvolved for more details.
UPDATE: June 1, 2021 — The Senate Bill 574 stats:
Passed full Senate and House floor votes, with 3-to-1 bipartisan majorities
Had 17 sponsors, with a nearly even split of Democrats and Republicans, House and Senate, from rural, urban, and suburban districts
Received written support from over 600 Oregon motorcyclists
Was endorsed by many Oregon businesses and organizations
Received a “Do Pass” recommendation from the Joint Committee on Transportation
Clearly, Senate Bill 574 was one of the most widely supported bills in the current legislative session and is an acute illustration of elected officials successfully working together to support Oregonians.
Then – Gov Brown Vetoed the Bill on May 26th, citing public safety concerns, including noncompliance and enforcement.
Images courtesy of Oregon Legislature and 4X4 Blazer 1776.
Concerns over ongoing restrictions forced the cancellation of the Hells Canyon Motorcycle Rally planned for July 9-12th 2021.
Organizers came to the decision due to the State of Oregon’s restrictions, and having no line-of-sight to a method of safely hosting this event while still being in compliance with the state’s guidelines. “The show must go on” is in our DNA, we are now working through the ramifications of this unfortunate situation.
I’m of the viewpoint that organizers likely made the decision that hosting an event for a few thousand people with mandated indoor/outdoor occupancy limits and social distancing requirements was too risky due to enforcement and liability issues. Additionally, the pandemic’s adverse impact on manufacturers and industry vendors has led to significant supply delays and shortages, which adds even more risk for small businesses.
On February 22, 2021, Harley-Davidson® officially unveiled the multi-year teased then full-frontal hyped all-new Liquid-Cooled V-Twin (Revolution® Max 1250 Engine), which powers the new Adventure (ADV) segment (Touring and Sport) motorcycle called the Pan America™ 1250. The Revolution Max 1250 engine is assembled at the Harley-Davidson Pilgrim Road Powertrain Operations facility in Wisconsin.
The new engine is tuned specifically to deliver the desirable power characteristics for the Pan America 1250, with an emphasis on smooth low-end torque delivery and low-speed throttle control applicable to ADV off-road riding.
Harley-Davidson is bent on piloting across a dusty path into the deep-sand of the Dakar trail by taking on the most iconic and recognizable adventure motorcycle — the BMW GS. The GS, a direct descendant of a Dakar winner, has spent decades proving its capability in the remote parts of the world, with each generation improving on the last.
Revolution® Max 1250 Engine
Revolution® Max 1250 Engine Summary:
Displacement: 76.3 cu in (1,252 cc)
Bore x Stroke: 4.13 in (105 mm) x 2.83 in (72 mm)
Maximum horsepower: 150 @ 9000 rpm
Maximum torque: 94 ft/lbs @ 6750 rpm
Peak RPM: 9500
Compression Ratio: 13.0:1 (Piston crowns are machined)
Valvetrain: Chain-driven, DOHC, hydraulic self-adjusting lifters, intake & exhaust VVT; four valves per cylinder
Cooling: Liquid
Transmission: 6-speed
Primary Drive: Gear
Final Drive: Belt
More Revolution® Max 1250 Engine Details:
60-degree V angle of the cylinders.
Single-piece aluminum cylinders with nickel silicon carbide-surface galvanic coating.
Rocker covers, camshaft covers and primary cover are lightweight magnesium.
Liquid cooled engine and the engine oil is also liquid cooled. Oil cooling jets are aimed at the bottom of the pistons.
The two crankshaft connecting rod journals are offset by 30 degrees which creates a 90-degree firing order.
The engine requires premium-grade (91 octane) fuel.
Four-valve cylinder heads (two intake and two exhaust) — exhaust valves are sodium-filled.
Cylinder heads are cast from high-strength 354 aluminum alloy.
The engine has Double Overhead Camshafts (DOHC) with Variable Valve Timing (VVT).
The engine features roller-finger valve actuation with hydraulic lash adjusters and has multiple internal balancers.
The engine has two spark plugs per cylinder, dual down-draft throttle bodies with an 11-liter air box over the engine and washable conical air filter.
The is a unitized powertrain, i.e. the engine and transmission are housed in a common case.
There is a six-speed transmission and the clutch is mechanically actuated with a large-diameter cable.
Harley-Davidson stated that the Pan America adventure motorcycle powered by the Revolution Max 1250 engine can achieve a top speed of 135 mph (217 kmh)!
Similar to the crossover in the four-wheeled world, the adventure motorcycle segment has now been expanded, thanks to Harley-Davidson.
It’s real, and it’s spectacular. Fastest I’ve ever clicked “buy.”
Wait! Not so fast. What are you talking about Mac?
Today was historic. The original film starts out greeting thrillseekers, music lovers and conversationalists all across the frozen plains.
You had me at; “You’re here by the grace of your lineage.”
But, I’ve wandered off the main trail.
Our “movie hero,” Jochen Zeitz, chairman, president and CEO Harley-Davidson, was an actor riding — yes, RIDING — an actual motorcycle. That in of itself might be a first?! There he was in the scenic landscape of Kenya, Africa no less. Traveling to the vast wildlife preserves to lasso the FIRST twin Adventure Motorcycle and bring it back to Made in America!
Nothing to see here Buell owners.
The emotional exhaustion of this past year must have gripped Mr. Zeitz’ soul, as he peered out onto the Segera Retreat, where a herd of zebra graze, swishing their tails in unison to keep the flies away. Where a long giraffe at the outer edges of the garden keeps him company as he ploughs through a lengthy to-do list waiting for the Milwaukee employees to wake up.
Today Mr. Zeitz must be just thrilled of simply being alive and to share his wisdom with the motorcycle adventure world.
At the film preview, Journalists cheered… remotely of course. There were tears and applause, then more tears as the press fell apart during the historical Harley-Davidson Pan America launch today. Harley-Davidson told a syrupy sympathetic story with dramatic musical overdubs on how the motor company always made off-road bikes. The film narrator described that this isn’t Harley’s first dirt rodeo. You might recall, that back in the 1960s and 70s, Harley offered a variety of small dual-sports, and even briefly got into the motocross game. Harley filled the gap in their lineup by purchasing the Italian motorcycle manufacturer Aermacchi. Not too long after, Harley gave up on the idea of small dirt bikes and sold Aermacchi, which eventually became the company we know today as Cagiva.
It’s fairly evident that the motorcycle press has become nothing but “exhausting love letters to consumerism.” I’ll save my cynicism as a more legitimate response to a product launch once I have a chance to fully review the stats vs. just post another emotional reaction.
We all know that Harley-Davidson is trying to break into the popular adventure motorcycle scene with the 2021 Pan America 1250 and Pan America 1250 Special. The motorcycle and dealer network will compete with some of Europe’s top players, including the BMW GS 1250, KTM 1290 Adventure, and the Ducati Multistrada V4. Harley-Davidson pricing begins at $17,319 for the base model and $19,999 for the Special. The models will arrive at Harley-Davidson dealerships in spring 2021.
For me, it was an immense privilege both physically and spiritually to witness the Pan America launch via film/video. #sarcasmalert
Image courtesy of YouTube: Harley-Davidson Original Film (25:45 minutes)
TAKEAWAY: The Q4 2020 Harley-Davidson retail motorcycle sales in the U.S. — the company’s biggest market — fell for the 16th straight quarter!
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DETAILS: Yesterday, I posted that Harley-Davidson unveiled “The Hardwire” — a new 5-year strategic plan. My snarky responses were largely based on what I viewed as the motor company ‘selling the news’ with a lack of granular detail or disclosure around a growth path forward. It was a brutal Q4’20 and full-year financial result. Followed by executive management’s murky 2021 outlook. The street wasn’t happy and the result was a 17% drop in share price followed by another 2% today.
My blog post today will be on the fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 financial results with less commentary.
The Hardwire includes investing in the Touring and heavyweight Cruiser segment, expanding into untapped segments of Adventure Touring and creating a new division dedicated to electric motorcycles.
The motor company views Inclusive Stakeholder Management in the context of people, planet and profit, as all three are now embedded in the past and future success of the company.
The motorcycle maker plans to give stock grants to its employees, inspired by a program devised by KKR & Co Inc. executive Pete Stavros.
Reported fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 44 cents per share. A big miss and notable executive mismanagement of expectations as the street consensus estimate was for a profit at 24 cents.
The revenue decreased by 32% at $725 million compared to previous year.
The company suffered a net loss of $96 million compared to the previous year’s profit of $13 million.
The loss per share was 0.63 and the adjusted loss per share was $0.44.
Total revenues from the Motorcycle and Related products segment, which constitute the bulk of the firm’s overall revenues, plunged 39% year over year to $531 million in the reported quarter.
For Q4’20, Harley-Davidson retailed 33,925 motorcycle units globally, down 14.1% year over year. The company’s retail motorcycle units sold in the U.S. slid 14.5% from the year-ago quarter to 17,274. Sales in the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, Canada and Latin America declined 2.2%, 9.6%, 30.2% and 50.9%, respectively, from the year-ago period.
Revenues for Parts & Accessories (P&A) were up 13.3% from the prior year to $146.4 million. However, revenues for General Merchandise (GM) — including Motor Clothes apparel and accessories — dropped 13% from the prior-year quarter to $49.7 million.
The selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) increased to $276.4 million from the $266.4 million compared to fourth-quarter 2019.
Consolidated revenues for 2020 came in at $4,054 million, declining 24% from the prior year’s $5,362 million. Moreover, the company’s adjusted earnings per share for the year came in at 77 cents, tanking 77% from the $3.36 per share reported in 2019.
The motor company streamlined the product portfolio, reducing the planned number of models by almost 30%.
Paid dividends of $0.44 per share for the full year
Re-set motorcycle model year launch timing to align with beginning of the year seasonality
Exited 39 markets to focus on the approximately 50 highest-potential markets
Reduced total dealer network by approximately 160 net global dealers in 2020
Jochen Zeitz, chairman, president and CEO, Harley-Davidson summarized the financial call: “The entire Harley-Davidson team put forth tremendous effort in 2020 and we now have the right organization, structure and strategy in place to make step changes in our performance and enhance our position as the most desirable motorcycle brand in the world.”
DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Harley-Davidson. The author does not own or does the author plan to purchase and/or sell any $HOG stock.
Harley-Davidson released the secret recipe for “The Hardwire” — a new 5-year strategic plan rolled out oddly on Groundhog Day. You can read the press release HERE.
Groundhog Day, the comedy film starring Bill Murray, Andie MacDowell and Chris Elliott portrays a cynical TV weatherman covering the annual Groundhog Day event in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, who becomes trapped in a time loop forcing him to relive February 2 repeatedly.
I reviewed the Harley-Davidson press release and like the film, the motor company seems to be in a time loop spewing marketing or business verbiage that doesn’t mean anything. The release reads like quotes from the books “Crossing the Chasm“/”Blue Ocean“/”Good To Great” / “Tipping Point” / “Outliers.” I’ve never read all of these books, but I sound MBA literate if I quote them. And, besides, most biker enthusiasts probably never read them either to call me out on it.
Below are the main topics of Chairman, President and CEO Jochen Zeitz’s, The Hardwire = with my snarky management euphemisms added for clarity:
The Hardwire Strategy
Profit Focus: Don’t leave money on the table = Be as greedy with them as possible. Selective Expansion and Redefinition: We’re all about value-add = Unlike our competitors who seek to add no value. Lead in Electric: It’s best-of-breed = We hired a market research firm to say that. Growth Beyond Bikes: This is the next big thing/new thing = Some of our 20-somethings have told me this is really cool. Customer Experience: We’re customer-focused/proactive/results-oriented = That can’t be bad, right? This is motherhood and apple pie stuff. Inclusive Stakeholder Management: We need to monetize/strategize/analyze/incentivize = When in doubt, stick “-ize” on the end of a word and it will sound action-oriented. People: I know you’ve been burning the candle on both ends = Get ready to do some more. Planet: It’s basic New Green Deal blocking and tackling = How could you screw this up? I also played high school football and those were the best days of my life. Profit: We want this to move up and to the right = I failed high school algebra but someone said this means we’ll be making a lot of money if this happens. Financial Targets: It’s about synergies/1 + 1 = 3 = I don’t get the math either, but it sounds like more and more is better, right?
Metaphors or marketing euphemisms are always interesting to me. Eu·phe·mism — a word or expression substituted for one considered to be too harsh or blunt when referring to something unpleasant or embarrassing. For example, a famous feature of the World Fair in New York in 1964-65 was something called the Dynamic Maturity Pavilion — basically a garden with benches where those of mature years could rest.
Maturity is a positive concept; it implies that a person is fully developed in body or mind. And as a “seasoned” motorcyclist I’ll need to wrap my head around reliving The Hardwire. We’ve seen this film before. I’ll need to sharpen my pencil and circle back to fully understand the paradigm shift.
In the meantime, I know we’re all on the same team here, rowing in the same direction, and it’s not about me, it’s about us.
Photos courtesy Columbia Pictures and Harley-Davidson.
It’s the 80th year of Daytona Bike Week, scheduled for March 5-14th.
Daytona Bike Week launches the motorcycle riding season as thousands of motorcycle enthusiasts from all over the world will descend upon Daytona Beach for this 10-day rally – along historic Main Street to Midtown, Scenic A1A Highway and through the best of old Florida, the Ormond Beach Scenic Loop. The celebration continues at Daytona International Speedway, Bruce Rossmeyer’s Destination Daytona, and the U.S. 1 corridors and other locations throughout Volusia County.
Main Street Cruising
Last year during the early days of the pandemic, there were media articles of Daytona Bike Week being a COVID super spreader event. There were articles of a New York patient that had tested positive after attending Daytona Bike Week. But a year later officials now say that patient never made it to the event. You might recall that the event was cut short by a day and a half in 2020, when the COVID-19 threat started to spike in Florida.
Who to believe?
At any rate, the City commissioners voted in January to welcome motorcyclists to the 80th Daytona Bike Week event. However, the 2021 event carries new rules and restrictions. Bars, restaurants and shops that offer some outside activities must limit the number of customers at any given time to 60 percent of the normal facility capacity. Businesses that have outdoor activities are also required to submit detailed plans for the location and use of cleaning products, masks, hand sanitizer, temperature checks, signs and social distancing. Businesses without outside activities will be allowed to have their usual percentage of occupancy. Property owners who violate the agreement with the city could be banned from future outdoor activities.
This seems like an “aggressive loosening” of restrictions and my initial reaction is we’ve seen this movie before. But, I’m living not in Florida and admittedly difficult to gauge.
It’s unclear if the new administration who promised to vanquish the coronavirus and recently signed a stack of executive orders (EO) on COVID-19 will have any additional prohibitions on the Daytona event. Governors have been making hard decisions about how much of the economy to open for months now and it’s a hard decision every time.
Photos courtesy of Daytona Bike Week and News-Journal/Nigel Cook.
The H-D 21 virtual broadcast was an all digital event to announce new 2021 motorcycles, parts and accessories.
The new model launch yesterday came less than a year after the motor company reported plans to streamline its product portfolio by 30% while overhauling its launch timing (historically every August) and go-to-market practices for maximum impact.
As soon as the media, dealers and consumers logged into the Harley-Davidson online portal, I knew this year’s product launch was going to be … different.
The event opened with a long video montage on the joys of the motorcycling experience. I watched Jason Mamoa gush about his Harley family, or “Ohana” — you’ll remember him as Aquaman.
As someone who has served time in the trenches creating marketing campaigns, this was the traditional entertainer-as-a-promotional vehicle initiative. The idealized figure introduced Harley-Davidson CEO Jochen Zeitz who teased the audience with a number of motorcycles and projects that he apparently can’t speak about yet.
Huh?
As the motorcycle launch wore on, with a selection of motor company smooth-talking prognosticators from various departments sharing bits of information about updates to Cruiser, Touring and CVO models, the value of an all-virtual Harley-Davidson product roll-out actually became less clear. The new products, which we usually look forward to, felt less exciting. It’s hard to determine the viability of any product by watching a slick video about it in a browser. The discussions about the Harley-Davidson future of motorcycling felt less like revelatory conversations and more like a TED Talk that I’d scroll past in my Twitter feed.
For me the serendipity of discovery was gone. One of the most exciting parts of a product launch has been finding out about something or learning about something new through pure chance. At a virtual H-D 21, that’s a virtual impossibility.
Street Bob 114
But, I’ve digressed.
Cruiser Updates
Harley stated that the Street Bob 114 is the lightest Softail model to be equipped with the Milwaukee-Eight 114 engine. The legendary Fat Boy receives refreshed styling for 2021, getting brilliant chrome instead of satin chrome on the engine and exhaust, the front end, the rear fender struts and console.
Touring Models
The 2021 Touring lineup includes three baggers that feature the Milwaukee-Eight 114 motor: Road King Special, Road Glide Special and Street Glide Special. The Street Glide Special and Road Glide Special get new two-tone paint options, and a choice of a blacked-out or bright chrome styling treatment – a choice between dark and sinister, or brilliant and more traditional.
Fat Boy
Road King Special and Street Glide Special models get a new brilliant Daymaker LED headlamp. All Harley-Davidson Touring models that are equipped with the colour touchscreen Boom! Box GTS infotainment system that now have Android Auto and Apple CarPlay compatibility. The feature requires a wired connection to a smartphone rather than going through Bluetooth.
CVO Models
Custom Vehicle Operations (CVO) motorcycles are the poster child for Harley-Davidson’s styling and performance. The Milwaukee-Eight 117 V-Twin engine is exclusive to CVO models as standard equipment. For 2021, the CVO Street Glide and CVO Road Glide models receive all-new Harley-Davidson Audio provided through an exclusive partnership with Rockford Fosgate.
CVO Limited
The audio systems, featuring speakers and amplifiers, were designed specifically for Harley-Davidson motorcycles. These components will also be made available through Harley-Davidson Genuine Motor Parts & Accessories for 2014 and newer Touring models equipped with a Boom! Box infotainment unit.
The 2021 CVO models (CVO Street Glide, CVO Road Glide, CVO Limited and CVO Tri Glide) all feature new paint options and styling features. All four CVO models are also equipped with RDRS safety equipment, including Cornering Enhanced Electronic Linked Braking, Cornering Enhanced ABS, Cornering Enhanced Traction Control, Drag-Torque Slip Control, Vehicle Hold Control, and Tire Pressure Monitoring System.
Pan America 1250
Pan America Global Reveal
The upcoming and over exposed Pan America 1250 adventure tourer was previewed in the virtual launch broadcast, but the most important details weren’t provided as it’s official launch is set for February 22nd. Mark your calendar and register for the event HERE.
It will be interesting to compare how this virtual launch broadcast performs in attracting potential motorcycle buyers and if it will drive demand for products or make an emotional connection to the Harley-Davidson brand.
It’s been my experience that: “People don’t buy “what” you do, they buy “why” you do it.” — Simon Sinek
Thank you for your ongoing support during this time.
As we watch 2020 fade and get ready to ring in 2021, please use your common sense and good judgment. Whether you’re riding a motorcycle, driving a motor vehicle or are a pedestrian, be careful and vigilant, especially this holiday weekend.
Northwest Harley Blog 